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FOREX Trading: Learn The Real Significance Of The Economic News
Although FOREX traders are generally aware of the importance of daily economic calendars, in order to be profitable, they must go further and understand the difference between surprise and expected.
In order to grasp these concepts, you have to know that this is a game between the financial authorities and the community of analysts, trying to predict the numbers.
While natural disasters, accidents and political moves cannot be expected and therefore they are always considered as surprise news, the economic calendar is well known by the investment community.
In a highly speculative investment environment like the FOREX market, the most important volatility creator is the economic calendar.
Indicators like GDP (Gross Domestic Product), CPI (Consumer Price Index), PPI (Producer Price Index), Unemployment Rate, Interest Rate, Retail Sales and Trade Balance are widely followed and evaluated.
Prior to each report, estimates are published and traders try to position themselves according to what the numbers are expected to be.
These estimates will set the tone and drive the market prior to the publication of each report.
Here comes a rule you have to integrate into your trading, the market discounts every piece of information. Simply stated, the price is the result of all that is known and expected by the investment community.
Even if the report indicates a good economic result, if this has
been anticipated through the estimates, the market will not move much, as it already discounted this information early in the process.
However, if the economic announcement does not come in line with the expectations, then we have the so-called surprise reports. The investment community quickly tries to digest and adapt to the new expectations and in doing so, it drives the market in the direction of the surprise news.
Professional FOREX operators avoid having opened positions prior to key economic reports. They prepare trading plans for both, the expected as well as the surprise scenarios and act upon what is published, consequently limiting their risk exposure.
Always remember, only surprise news will move the market. Even if the report shows a strong economic sector, if the actual numbers are in line with the analysts' expectations, the market has already absorbed and discounted the numbers, therefore it will not move much.
Bogdan Vasile
Mr. VASILE is the founder and President of VORTEX Capital Management, a seasoned FOREX trader, member of the Securities & Investment Institute in London and author of the revolutionary SyncronDec™ training program used in his professional FOREX course. He is also the owner of http://www.forex-arena.com, a professional website, dedicated to FOREX analysis and education.
Written By: Bogdan Vasile
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