CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 19th August (00:30 GMT)
Written by Anthony Darvall
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was mixed once again ending slightly stronger against risk currencies as US equities failed to hold onto intraday gains. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories fell -0.8m vs. -3m previously. In US stocks, DJIA +9points closing at 10415, S&P +1 points closing at 1093 and NASDAQ +6 points closing at 2215. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 476k vs. 484k previously.
The Euro (EUR) tested resistance above 1.2900 as US stocks started the day on a strong footing but the rally stalled and we ended in familiar territory in the mid 1.28 region. EUR/JPY traded above Y110 briefly but struggled to hold the key level. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2790 and a high of 1.2924 before closing at 1.2840. Looking ahead, German PPI is forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.6% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) talk of solid semi official USD/JPY buy orders at Y85.20 kept the market well supported on dips and finished unchanged on the day. GBP/JPY buying supported but AUD/JPY was a drag on the market. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 85.17 and a high of 85.70 before closing the day around 85.45 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) found support at the 1.5500 level before staging a solid rally on the back of the MPC minutes which once again showed one member voting for a rate hike in the UK at the last August meeting. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5496 and a high of 1.5691 before closing the day at 1.5575 in the New York session. Looking ahead, July Retails Sales are forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.7% m/m. Also released, August CBI Orders are forecast at -14.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was hurt by the change in mood in the US session with weakness in some commodities and uncertainty surrounding the Australian Election on Saturday prompting a pullback. Support is seen at 0.8950 and week lows at 0.8860. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8956 and a high of 0.9056 before closing the US session at 0.9070.
Oil & Gold (XAU) continued to be well supported on dips with a test of $1220 failing before month highs above $1230 were seen. Overall trading with a low of USD$1217 and high of USD $1232 before ending the New York session at USD$1228 an ounce. Crude was sold after the US Oil data but was bought back into the US close. WTI Oil Closed -$0.35 at $75.42 a barrel.
| Currency | Sup 2 | Sup 1 | Spot | Res 1 | Res 2 |
| EUR/USD | 1.2523 | 1.2737 | 1.2815 | 1.2933 | 1.3334 |
| USD/JPY | 83.50 | 84.73 | 85.50 | 86.66 | 88.12 |
| GBP/USD | 1.5125 | 1.5499 | 1.5575 | 1.5713 | 1.5999 |
| AUD/USD | 0.8781 | 0.8860 | 0.8970 | 0.9080 | 0.9222 |
| XAU/USD | 1190.00 | 1210 | 1230 | 1244 | 1265.00 |
| OIL/USD | 73.80 | 75 | 75.30 | 77 | 78.00 |
Euro – 1.2815
Initial support at 1.2737 (July 22 low) followed by 1.2523 (July 13 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2933 (Aug 12 low) followed by 1.3334 (August 6 high)
Yen – 85.50
Initial support is located at 84.73 (August 11 low) followed by 83.50 (June 1995 low). Initial resistance is now at 86.66 (August 3 high) followed by 88.12 (July 28 high).
Pound – 1.5575
Initial support at 1.5499 (Aug 18 low) followed by 1.5125 (July 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5713 (August 12 high) followed by 1.5999 (Aug 6 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.8970
Initial support at 0.8860 (Aug 16 high) followed by the 0.8781 (38.2% retrace of 0.8067-0.9222). Initial resistance is now at 0. 9080 (August 17 high) followed by 0.9222 (Aug 6 high).
Gold – 1230
Initial support at 1210 (Aug 13 low) followed by 1190 (Aug 10 low). Initial resistance is now at 1244 (July 1 high) followed by 1265 (June 21 high).
Oil – 75.30
Initial support at 75.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 72.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 77.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Resistance).
Consolidation today, well we had moves but do not get into the habit of thinking that yesterday was big moves so now we have started to trend again, that is how the markets get you.
I forgot to say Last night that the Euro/Chf had broken out of its flag and was on the way down, I did post it in the “Live Chat” box (can see this is going to be handy in more ways than one!!) if you managed to have a peek at it today. Ok so where to tomorrow, honestly I would not trade it, I don’t trade Friday afternoon anyway as the liquid dries up. And with the consolidation we had today we could be in for some whip saws and violent swings. We had a few today. SO advice is again have the day off, I think of trading as a 3 and a half day week, I don’t like trading Mondays as of all the news that could come out over the weekend has to be filtered into the market, and Friday afternoons I don’t trade so a 3 and a half day week (I do trade Mondays but very cautious). Ok so tomorrow, I can only point out areas of interest here, and would advise you not to place forward orders.
| Currency | Selling TT/OD | Buying TT | Buying OD | Currency Notes | |
| Selling | Buying | ||||
| 1 US Dollar | 3.2135 | 3.1485 | 3.1385 | 3.2320 | 3.1100 |
| 1 Australian Dollar | 2.8960 | 2.8120 | 2.7960 | 2.9220 | 2.7690 |
| 1 Brunei Dollar | 2.3680 | 2.3080 | 2.3000 | 2.3760 | 2.2910 |
| 1 Canadian Dollar | 3.0910 | 3.0140 | 3.0020 | 3.2260 | 2.9920 |
| 1 Euro | 4.1270 | 4.0410 | 4.0210 | 4.2110 | 3.9820 |
| 1 New Zealand Dollar | 2.3130 | 2.2220 | 2.2060 | 2.4100 | 2.1960 |
| 1 Papua N Guinea Kina | 1.3220 | 1.0950 | 1.0790 | NA | NA |
| 1 Singapore Dollar | 2.3675 | 2.3080 | 2.3000 | 2.3760 | 2.2910 |
| 1 Sterling Pound | 5.0070 | 4.9130 | 4.8930 | 5.0770 | 4.8610 |
| 1 Swiss Franc | 3.0680 | 2.9920 | 2.9770 | 3.1010 | 2.9690 |
| 100 Arab Emirates Dirham | 88.9900 | 84.2400 | 84.0400 | 94.9100 | 84.0300 |
| 100 Bangladesh Taka | 4.7090 | 4.4420 | 4.2420 | NA | NA |
| 100 Chinese Renminbi | 47.60 | 45.70 | NA | NA | NA |
| 100 Danish Krone | 57.1600 | 52.4700 | 52.2700 | NA | NA |
| 100 Hongkong Dollar | 42.0700 | 39.8300 | 39.6300 | 42.9800 | 39.6300 |
| 100 Indian Rupee | 7.0160 | 6.6400 | 6.4400 | NA | NA |
| 100 Indonesian Rupiah | 0.0363 | 0.0343 | 0.0293 | 0.0375 | 0.0320 |
| 100 Japanese Yen | 3.7430 | 3.6490 | 3.6390 | 3.7700 | 3.6200 |
| 100 New Taiwan Dollar | NA | NA | NA | 10.5800 | 9.3200 |
| 100 Norwegian Krone | 53.7400 | 49.2300 | 49.0300 | 64.1300 | 48.1800 |
| 100 Pakistan Rupee | 3.8300 | 3.5800 | 3.3800 | 5.0300 | 3.4000 |
| 100 Philippine Peso | 7.1900 | 6.8000 | 6.6000 | 7.6100 | 6.7700 |
| 100 Qatar Riyal | 89.5800 | 85.2100 | 85.0100 | NA | NA |
| 100 Saudi Riyal | 87.030 | 82.620 | 82.420 | 86.910 | 81.050 |
| 100 South Africa Rand | 45.5500 | 41.8600 | 41.6600 | 46.1700 | 40.8100 |
| 100 Sri Lanka Rupee | 2.9500 | 2.7100 | 2.5100 | 3.7100 | 2.6200 |
| 100 Swedish Krona | 45.1700 | 41.0300 | 40.8300 | NA | NA |
| 100 Thai Baht | 10.7900 | 9.1300 | 8.7300 | 10.8600 | 9.1400 |
Last update : 13-Aug-10 at 8:28:03 AM
Disclaimer: Rates are subject to change without prior notice
Market Crashes on Slowing Recovery Fear
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 12th August (00:30 GMT)
Written by Anthony Darvall
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) surged higher throughout the day as safe haven flows helped out the world’s reserve currency. Stock markets around the world fell back 2% on a combination of US growth downgrades and renewed Eurozone banking concerns. Junes Trade Balance blew out to 49bn vs. 42bn previously.In US stocks, DJIA -265points closing at 10378, S&P -31 points closing at 1089 and NASDAQ -68 points closing at 2208. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 465k vs. 479k previously.
The Euro (EUR) was the worst hit currency in the market falling 3 big figures as news emerged that some Irish banks that had passed the stress test would need capital from the Irish Government. Combined with heavy EUR/JPY selling the Euro was sold for most the of the day with little reprieve. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2828 and a high of 1.3162 before closing at 1.2880. Looking ahead, June Industrial Production is forecast at 0.7% vs. 0.9% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY broke to fresh 15 year lows under Y85 last night as heavy cross selling and risk aversion supported Yen strength. EUR/JPY broke below Y110 and GBP/JPY fell below Y134 under heavy selling.Japanese August Machine Orders at 1.6% vs. 5.5% forecast. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 84.71 and a high of 85.49 before closing the day around 85.20 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) heavy selling on Tuesday was backed up on yesterday with risk off selling and a downgrade of economic growth forecasts from the Bank of England. UK employment growth was solid however with July Claimant Count falling further to -3.8k and June Unemployment rate holding at 7.8%. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5612 and a high of 1.5836 before closing the day at 1.5670 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) the risk sensitive currency was sold aggressively throughout the day breaking back below 0.9000 and running stops to the lower 0.8900 levels. AUD/JPY fell back below Y77 supports and is heavily correlated with global stock markets. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8931 and a high of 0.9125 before closing the US session at 0.8950. Update July Employment Change +23.5k vs. +20k forecast, Unemployment Rate jumps to 5.3% vs. 5.1% previously.
Oil & Gold (XAU) was better supported then most currencies against the greenback as the precious metal received its own support as a safe haven asset. Overall trading with a low of USD$1192 and high of USD $1208 before ending the New York session at USD$1200 an ounce. Crude Oil fell sharply as commodities in general fell for a 5th day on global growth and demands concerns. WTI Oil Closed -$2.23 at $78.02 a barrel.
| Currency | Sup 2 | Sup 1 | Spot | Res 1 | Res 2 |
| EUR/USD | 1.2523 | 1.2777 | 1.2885 | 1.3187 | 1.3334 |
| USD/JPY | 83.50 | 84.70 | 85.00 | 86.66 | 88.12 |
| GBP/USD | 1.5400 | 1.5582 | 1.5665 | 1.5861 | 1.5999 |
| AUD/USD | 0.8738 | 0.8896 | 0.8945 | 0.9222 | 0.9389 |
| XAU/USD | 1157.00 | 1190 | 1198 | 1211 | 1218.00 |
| OIL/USD | 75.00 | 77 | 77.50 | 78 | 80.00 |
Euro – 1.2885
Initial support at 1.2777 (38.2% retrace of 1.1877-1.3334) followed by 1.2523 (July 13 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3187 (August 11 high) followed by 1.3334 (August 6 high)
Yen – 85.00
Initial support is located at 84.70 (August 11 low) followed by 83.50 (June 1995 low). Initial resistance is now at 86.66 (August 3 high) followed by 88.12 (July 28 high).
Pound – 1.5665
Initial support at 1.5582 (23.6% retrace of 1.4231-1.5999) followed by 1.5400 (July 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5861 (August 11 high) followed by 1.5999 (Aug 6 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.8945
Initial support at 0.8996 (July 23 high) followed by the 0.8738 (July 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 0. 9222 (Aug 6 low) followed by 0.9389 (April 12 high).
Gold – 1198
Initial support at 1190 (Aug 10 low) followed by 1157 (July 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 1211 (Aug 6 high) followed by 1218 (July 13 high).
Oil – 77.50
Initial support at 77.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 75.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 78.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 80.00 (Intraday Resistance).
OPEN AN EASY-FOREX ACCOUNT TODAY! CLICK HERE
You can only be wrong or right!!! Those trading off the Daily candles got burned today; it happens now and again, Mr Mervin King didn’t help either. So a double dip is on the cards, finally they say what we all know. When you trade forex you should have your home pair as one of the currency’s you trade, because you know the word on the street, you know what is really happening.
Now a lot of the moves we have been waiting for happened today, again this strategy does work as long as you are patient. I am done for the week now unless something screams at me to trade it. The trades I am in I have left one third free.
News for tomorrow (12 August 2010):
AUD: Employment Change, Unemployment Change
USD: Unemployment Claims.
The Australian economy is expected to have added another 20,000 jobs in July, which would mark the fifth consecutive monthly advancement. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at the eighteen month low of 5.1 percent.
£/$ |
Has broken back down today. Might go back to 1.5775 / 1.5800 level to enter this tomorrow. |
€/$ |
Got his wrong last night!!! Woke up this morning to find it had gone bearish on us. Remember I showed you the butterfly reversal last week (I did think we would get a retest of 1.3300 before the fall. Well the reversal is now is play. I show you in the video what the target is here according to the BF reversal. There is talk on the wires that this pair is trading the advance Euro Zone 2Q GDP report which is out on Friday. A soft GDP reading could lead to another drop in the EUR/USD as the outlook for economy deteriorates. (We will wait and see (read the quote about experts in last nights outlook) |
$/Cad |
Said last night that this pair has not been kind lately, so I leave alone, and have no intention of trading this tomorrow. |
$/Chf |
Looks very bullish, if it breaks our cap on the daily chart then a retest to long would be the plan. |
€/£ |
Broke out today and has gone over 90 pips, you had a breakout and a retest on the 4 hour. A text book breakout pullback move. We have been waiting for this for a couple of weeks now and today it happened. There is a head and shoulder breakout and as the text book says this pair should go 240 pips, so 150 left to go!! I wonder!! I show you in the video how to get into this tomorrow; I doubt it will pull back all the way. |
Aud/$ |
Falling again broke the daily trendline and moved today. You need a bit of a pullback here. Beware of the news out at 02.30 GMT |
Aud/Yen |
Also broke our level last night, I hope some of you got in at the start and did not hesitate, remember if you hesitate you lose. |
$/Yen |
Spiked down but came back up, where sis it stop, in our zone. I did not trade this today. Again need a bit of a pullback. |
€/Yen |
We had the pennant breakout today that we have been waiting for., I hope those of you who were watching the charts then got in here. |
€/Aud |
Has broken 1.4550 level, If pullback to there tomorrow I will look to short here. It might spike through to 1.4570 / 1.4580.(update, it has to close below 1.4350 on the daily for me, if not I may look higher up to short it). |
| Currency | Selling TT/OD | Buying TT | Buying OD | Currency Notes | |
| Selling | Buying | ||||
 1 US Dollar |
3.2215
|
3.1565
|
3.1465
|
3.2320
|
3.1180
|
 1 Australian Dollar |
2.9030
|
2.8210
|
2.8050
|
2.9290
|
2.7770
|
 1 Brunei Dollar |
2.3640
|
2.3050
|
2.2970
|
2.3720
|
2.2880
|
 1 Canadian Dollar |
3.0860
|
3.0090
|
2.9970
|
3.2260
|
2.9870
|
 1 Euro |
4.1460
|
4.0610
|
4.0410
|
4.2110
|
4.0010
|
 1 New Zealand Dollar |
2.3200
|
2.2290
|
2.2130
|
2.4100
|
2.2020
|
 1 Papua N Guinea Kina |
1.3240
|
1.1130
|
1.0970
|
NA
|
NA
|
 1 Singapore Dollar |
2.3635
|
2.3050
|
2.2970
|
2.3720
|
2.2880
|
 1 Sterling Pound |
5.0420
|
4.9470
|
4.9270
|
5.1120
|
4.8950
|
 1 Swiss Franc |
3.0500
|
2.9740
|
2.9590
|
3.0830
|
2.9520
|
 100 Arab Emirates Dirham |
89.2200
|
84.4400
|
84.2400
|
94.9100
|
84.2400
|
 100 Bangladesh Taka |
4.7210
|
4.4540
|
4.2540
|
NA
|
NA
|
 100 Chinese Renminbi |
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
 100 Danish Krone |
57.4200
|
52.7500
|
52.5500
|
NA
|
NA
|
 100 Hongkong Dollar |
42.1900
|
39.9400
|
39.7400
|
42.9800
|
39.7400
|
 100 Indian Rupee |
7.0460
|
6.6700
|
6.4700
|
NA
|
NA
|
 100 Indonesian Rupiah |
0.0366
|
0.0346
|
0.0296
|
0.0375
|
0.0320
|
 100 Japanese Yen |
3.7930
|
3.7000
|
3.6900
|
3.8200
|
3.6700
|
 100 New Taiwan Dollar |
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
10.5800
|
9.3600
|
 100 Norwegian Krone |
53.7800
|
49.3300
|
49.1300
|
64.1300
|
48.2500
|
 100 Pakistan Rupee |
3.8400
|
3.5900
|
3.3900
|
5.0300
|
3.4100
|
 100 Philippine Peso |
7.2200
|
6.8200
|
6.6200
|
7.6100
|
6.8000
|
 100 Qatar Riyal |
89.8100
|
85.4300
|
85.2300
|
NA
|
NA
|
 100 Saudi Riyal |
87.250
|
82.820
|
82.620
|
87.120
|
81.250
|
 100 South Africa Rand |
45.4100
|
41.7900
|
41.5900
|
46.1700
|
40.7500
|
 100 Sri Lanka Rupee |
2.9600
|
2.7200
|
2.5200
|
3.7100
|
2.6300
|
 100 Swedish Krona |
45.2900
|
41.1800
|
40.9800
|
NA
|
NA
|
 100 Thai Baht |
10.8200
|
9.1600
|
8.7600
|
10.8600
|
9.1600
|
Last update : 12-Aug-10 at 8:26:10 AM
Disclaimer: Rates are subject to change without prior notice
FED ANNOUCES EASING EXTENSIONS, USD MIXED
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 11th August (00:30 GMT)
Written by Anthony Darvall
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) risk aversion ahead of the US interest rate meeting helped the Dollar to day highs before a change in the FED monetary measures helped stocks lift into the close. The FED announced it would continue to buy 2-10 year treasuries and this could lead to the expansion of the QE program if the Economy falters further.In US stocks, DJIA -54 points closing at 10644, S&P -6 points closing at 1121 and NASDAQ -28 points closing at 2277. Looking ahead, June Trade Balance forecast at -42bn vs. -42.7bn previously.
The Euro (EUR) fell aggressively at the start of Europe to break below 1.3100 as a correction set in from the recent rally. The market shot higher after the FOMC to reclaim 1.3200 but remained heavy and started to slipped into the close. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3073 and a high of 1.3230 before closing at 1.3180.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY fell towards Y85 after the FOMC news which hurt the USD but the market is finding support in this lower region over the past week and could be putting a short term floor. Finance Minister Noda is increasing his talk to the market and providing support. The BOJ held at 0.1% as expected. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 85.15 and a high of 86.25 before closing the day around 85.30 in the New York session. UPDATE Japanese August Machine Orders at 1.6% vs. 5.5% forecast.
The Sterling (GBP) was the worst hit currency after some weak housing data put the GBP on the back foot in Asia and Europe. The RICS house price balance slipped -8% for the first negative reading since July last year and prompted talk of a double dip recession. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5709 and a high of 1.5911 before closing the day at 1.5860 in the New York session. Looking ahead, July Claimant Count forecast at -16.5k vs. -20.8k previously.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was hurt by the drop in investor confidence throughout the day with stops hit under 0.9100 and the market finding support at 0.9060. The outlook is still bright but the Aussie is beholden to stock market direction and AUD/JPY flows. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9057 and a high of 0.9167 before closing the US session at 0.9120.
Oil & Gold (XAU) continued to trade around the $1200 level falling in Europe before jumping to day highs after the FED announcement. Overall trading with a low of USD$1190 and high of USD $1208 before ending the New York session at USD$1203 an ounce. Crude Oil tracked stock markets lower finding support below $80 a barrel. WTI Oil Closed -$1.23 at $80.25 a barrel.
| Currency | Sup 2 | Sup 1 | Spot | Res 1 | Res 2 |
| EUR/USD | 1.2981 | 1.3075 | 1.3115 | 1.3334 | 1.3692 |
| USD/JPY | 83.50 | 84.83 | 85.25 | 86.66 | 88.12 |
| GBP/USD | 1.5400 | 1.5696 | 1.5815 | 1.5999 | 1.6069 |
| AUD/USD | 0.8896 | 0.9033 | 0.9080 | 0.9222 | 0.9389 |
| XAU/USD | 1146.00 | 1192 | 1204 | 1211 | 1218.00 |
| OIL/USD | 78.00 | 79.10 | 79.80 | 80 | 81.50 |
Euro – 1.3115
Initial support at 1.3075 (August 10 low) followed by 1.2981 (July 30 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3334 (August 6 high) followed by 1.3511 (50% retrace of 1.5144-1.1877)
Yen – 85.25
Initial support is located at 84.83 (Nov 29 2009 low) followed by 83.50 (Nov 29 2009 low). Initial resistance is now at 86.66 (August 3 high) followed by 88.12 (July 28 high).
Pound – 1.5815
Initial support at 1.5696 (August 2 low) followed by 1.5400 (July 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5999 (Aug 6 high) followed by 1.6069 (Feb 3 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9080
Initial support at 0.9033 (Aug 2 high) followed by the 0.8896 (July 22 high). Initial resistance is now at 0. 9222 (Aug 6 low) followed by 0.9389 (April 12 high).
Gold – 1204
Initial support at 1192 (Aug 6 low) followed by 1157 (July 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 1211 (Aug 6 high) followed by 1218 (July 13 high).
Oil – 79.80
Initial support at 79.10 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 80.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 82.50 (Intraday Resistance).
OPEN AN EASY-FOREX ACCOUNT TODAY! CLICK HERE
| Currency | Selling TT/OD | Buying TT | Buying OD | Currency Notes | |
| Selling | Buying | ||||
|
1 US Dollar |
3.1850
|
3.1200
|
3.1100
|
3.2320
|
3.0810
|
|
1 Australian Dollar |
2.9150
|
2.8310
|
2.8150
|
2.9410
|
2.7870
|
|
1 Brunei Dollar |
2.3590
|
2.3000
|
2.2920
|
2.3680
|
2.2830
|
|
1 Canadian Dollar |
3.0960
|
3.0190
|
3.0070
|
3.2260
|
2.9970
|
|
1 Euro |
4.1910
|
4.1040
|
4.0840
|
4.2110
|
4.0440
|
|
1 New Zealand Dollar |
2.3220
|
2.2310
|
2.2150
|
2.4100
|
2.2040
|
|
1 Papua N Guinea Kina |
1.3180
|
1.0850
|
1.0690
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
1 Singapore Dollar |
2.3585
|
2.3000
|
2.2920
|
2.3680
|
2.2830
|
|
1 Sterling Pound |
5.0370
|
4.9420
|
4.9220
|
5.1070
|
4.8900
|
|
1 Swiss Franc |
3.0400
|
2.9640
|
2.9490
|
3.0740
|
2.9420
|
|
100 Arab Emirates Dirham |
88.2000
|
83.4800
|
83.2800
|
94.9100
|
83.2700
|
|
100 Bangladesh Taka |
4.6670
|
4.4030
|
4.2030
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
100 Chinese Renminbi |
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
100 Danish Krone |
58.0300
|
53.3100
|
53.1100
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
100 Hongkong Dollar |
41.7200
|
39.5000
|
39.3000
|
42.9800
|
39.2900
|
|
100 Indian Rupee |
7.0120
|
6.6400
|
6.4400
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
100 Indonesian Rupiah |
0.0362
|
0.0342
|
0.0292
|
0.0375
|
0.0320
|
|
100 Japanese Yen |
3.7420
|
3.6480
|
3.6380
|
3.7700
|
3.6200
|
|
100 New Taiwan Dollar |
NA
|
NA
|
NA
|
10.5800
|
9.2800
|
|
100 Norwegian Krone |
54.3600
|
49.9200
|
49.7200
|
64.1300
|
48.8000
|
|
100 Pakistan Rupee |
3.8000
|
3.5500
|
3.3500
|
5.0300
|
3.3700
|
|
100 Philippine Peso |
7.2000
|
6.8100
|
6.6100
|
7.6100
|
6.7800
|
|
100 Qatar Riyal |
88.7800
|
84.4500
|
84.2500
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
100 Saudi Riyal |
86.250
|
81.880
|
81.680
|
86.780
|
80.320
|
|
100 South Africa Rand |
45.5500
|
41.8900
|
41.6900
|
46.1700
|
40.8400
|
|
100 Sri Lanka Rupee |
2.9300
|
2.6800
|
2.4800
|
3.7100
|
2.6000
|
|
100 Swedish Krona |
45.9600
|
41.7700
|
41.5700
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
100 Thai Baht |
10.6900
|
9.0500
|
8.6500
|
10.8600
|
9.0500
|
Last update : 11-Aug-10 at 8:25:17 AM
Ok so the fed news is out, they are going to reinvest the cash it receives in treasury bonds! When the mortgage bond investments mature. Pin bars and Engulfing all over the place!! I show you in the video how to get in on these, big news out of the Fed which should show us the direction for a while.
What we saw today was profit taking before the Fed announcement, As I was saying they had to do something after all the bad news out of the states, however it has only caused $ weakness. Now tomorrow will be the true reflection on the news, The Smart money will have had time to digest the statement and then plan their attack!!!. The only thing that worry me thou is the Liquid in the market!, just keep that in mind.
Now there are pin bars, engulfing etc on the daily charts, but be careful, plan your entries, and look to the smaller time frames. Make sure you use Money management to work out your lot sizes like I showed you last week.
“Today, the Fed announced its latest decision on interest rates. As expected, it did not raise interest rates, but did announce additional stimulus measures. Specifically, when the Fed’s mortgage bond investments mature, it will reinvest the cash it receives in Treasury bonds. In theory, this decision is meaningless. It simply indicates the Fed will maintain its balance sheet at the current size. In practice, it shows the Fed is concerned about the economy and is willing to provide additional stimulus. The market is showing considerable volatility after this announcement. Given the S&P 500 was unable to make any upward progress after its breakout last week and is now trading just above its June 2010 high… the stock market is on a knife edge.”
News tomorrow (11 August 2010):
The FOMC will likely cause ripples, and there is big news tomorrow so check your calendars for local times.
CNY: CPI y/y
GBP: Claimant Count Change, BOE Governor King Speaks, BOE Inflation Report
CAD: Trade Balance
USD Trade balance (If worse could cause the $ to tank even further, this could send our pairs over the big support and resistance lines).
Also starting next Tuesday will be the live chat. You will see we have added a link on the top navigation bar of the site called “Live Chat” (I don’t know how we think them up!). If you go to that page you can see what we have done, and hopefully it will help you in your trading. What we are aiming this to be is not a signal service but to help you with your trading, we will tell you live what we are looking at, why, where we plan on entering etc. Also you are encouraged to post your charts, any questions about a trade, not sure about your stop etc., we will help you.
Follow you r rules, stick to your rules, Plane the trade and trade the Plan.
P.s. Heard a great quote today “An economist is someone who doesn’t know what he’s talking about – and make you feel it’s your fault”
£/$ |
It looks like we will have a pin bar on the Daily close, should we get this then it would be hard not to see this testing 1.6000 again tomorrow. But we need this to close above the 61.8 of the weekly fib tonight and as a pin bar. The Weekly fib 61.8 is at 1.5859. If the news goes this pairs favour tomorrow we could see it breaking 1.6000. If you are not long in this wait for the pullback or a clear break of 1.6000 which is a massive psych level. I would not short at this level, it would depend on the news, however we do have mixed signals her on the 4 hour and the Daily. |
€/$ |
Also a pin bar, should this close like this and above the daily 200 ema then further top side is seeing and a retest of the 76.4 of the daily fib which is at 1.3270 is not off the cards. Don’t forget the news tomorrow on the $, this is worse for the $ could send the Euro over the 1.3300 level. This pair is respecting the whole numbers 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3200 etc keep that in mind. The big area is 1.3300, be careful just above we have the 200 EMA, the daily trendline (and the 78.6 of the fib some traders use) at 1.3350. |
$/Cad |
Looks like we will also get a nice daily pin bar, signalling downside tomorrow. However remember this pair for the past couple of months has not been behaving for us, so I will more than likely leave this pair tomorrow. |
$/Chf |
Took the short today and was blessed!!! It moved 44 pips from my entry so enough to get stop to BE, but I was blessed here. I would only short this pair now after the $ weakness today from the FOMC. |
€/£ |
If both the Euro/$ and the GBP/$ are going to head north tomorrow I would leave this pair, this pair works best when the EU and the GU are not correlating. I am only looking to short this if I trade it. Should this pair break our daily trendline south then I am interested in trading it after the break and close below. |
Aud/$ |
Surprise Surprise Pin bar!!!!!! Watch 0.9224 level, although it should break it, but might have some resistance here. |
Aud/Yen |
Looks like we will get our break out on this pair, and this should go some, a retest of 78.04 tomorrow to short this would be the logical place. But this HAS to CLOSE below 78.00 tonight for me to be interested tomorrow. If it does not I will walk away and come back and look at it tomorrow night. |
$/Yen |
A bearish engulfing candle on the Daily, signalling more downside to this pair, this would be better if it could close below 85.32. However it is to near the support level for me tomorrow, and other traders will also see this, a bit of a pullback would be ideal for us. So I will not short this tomorrow unless I get a pullback. |
€/Yen |
Very bearish today, need the breakout |
€/Aud |
Again waiting for the close below 1.4350 or above 1.4500 |
Calm Before The Storm, FOMC Today
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 10th August (00:30 GMT)
Written by Anthony Darvall
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was well supported by Dollar buybacks ahead of the US Interest Rate announcement today. Most markets were quiet with speculation of further Fed easing helping the stock market to small gains. In US stocks, DJIA +45 points closing at 10698, S&P +6 points closing at 1127 and NASDAQ +17 points closing at 2305. Looking ahead, August FOMC meeting forecast to keep rates at 0.25%.
The Euro (EUR) fell back from the 1.3300 level with the market cautious of being caught long ahead of tonight’s major risk event. On a positive note, August European Sentix jumped 9.8 points to 8.5 for the best reading since 2007. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3210 and a high of 1.3310 before closing at 1.3230. Looking ahead, July German CPI is forecast at 0.2% m/m.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was sold against the dollar as the heavy Yen buying over the past month was wound back ahead of today’s Bank of Japan meeting and US Central bank meeting. The Y85 is still key for the market as is the BOJ economic assessment today. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 85.32 and a high of 86.07 before closing the day around 85.90 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ meeting forecast to hold at 0.1%
The Sterling (GBP) came under the most pressure as the repeated failure at 1.6000 induced a fair sized pull back throughout the day. The recent rally has been over 14 big figures and a pull back for the volatile trading pair is likely. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5880 and a high of 1.5997 before closing the day at 1.5900 in the New York session. Looking ahead, June Trade Balance is forecast at -7.8bn vs. -8.06bn.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell back cautiously throughout the day on general USD strength but the outlook remains positive as the stock market looks solid. The AUD/JPY outlook is less certain as the USD/JPY continues with the downtrend. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9149 and a high of 0.9208 before closing the US session at 0.9160.
Oil & Gold (XAU) eased back after failing at $1211 resistance again but support was firm at $1200 and precious metal stabilized at this key level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1198 and high of USD $1210 before ending the New York session at USD$1201 an ounce. Crude bounced a little as Friday’s selling was seen as overdone. WTI Oil Closed +$0.78 at $81.48 a barrel.
| Currency | Sup 2 | Sup 1 | Spot | Res 1 | Res 2 |
| EUR/USD | 1.2981 | 1.3119 | 1.3215 | 1.3416 | 1.3692 |
| USD/JPY | 83.50 | 84.73 | 85.90 | 86.66 | 88.12 |
| GBP/USD | 1.5696 | 1.5820 | 1.5900 | 1.5999 | 1.6069 |
| AUD/USD | 0.8896 | 0.9033 | 0.9160 | 0.9273 | 0.9389 |
| XAU/USD | 1146.00 | 1192 | 1201 | 1211 | 1218.00 |
| OIL/USD | 78.00 | 80.00 | 81.50 | 82.50 | 85.00 |
Euro – 1.3215
Initial support at 1.3119 (August 5 low) followed by 1.2981 (July 30 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3416 (April 27 high) followed by 1.3692 (April 12 high)
Yen – 85.90
Initial support is located at 84.83 (Nov 29 2009 low) followed by 83.50 (Nov 29 2009 low). Initial resistance is now at 86.66 (August 3 high) followed by 88.12 (July 28 high).
Pound – 1.5900
Initial support at 1.5820 (August 5 low) followed by 1.5696 (August 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5999 (Aug 6 high) followed by 1.6069 (Feb 3 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9160
Initial support at 0.9033 (Aug 2 high) followed by the 0.8896 (July 22 high). Initial resistance is now at 0. 9273 (May 4 low) followed by 0.9389 (April 12 high).
Gold – 1201
Initial support at 1157 (July 5 low) followed by 1147 (Apr 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1211 (Aug 6 high) followed by 1218 (July 13 high).
Oil – 81.50
Initial support at 80.0 (Intraday Support) followed by 79.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.50 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 85.00 (Intraday Resistance).
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